Probability comparison in Minecraft

The youtuber IAJMinecraft has developed a visualization tool to compare probabilities in Minecraft. The data applies to the latest version of the Java edition of Minecraft (1.15.2) and may change in future updates. These figures are also partly different compared to other editions of Minecraft (Bedrock).

He made a video in which he compiles all the statistics, it’s in English but very well illustrated and formatted, so it will be very easy for you to understand the figures presented.

Most of the elements that have a percentage chance of occurring are shown :

  • % chance for a shulker to drop its shell : 1/2
  • % chance of getting a rabbit’s foot : 1/10
  • % chance of a skeleton wither dropping a skull : 1/40
  • % chance of a pink sheep appearing : 1/667
  • % chance of a baby pink sheep appearing : 1/12 195
  • % chance of running into the same seed twice in a row : 1/281 474 976 710 656
  • % chance to fall on a baby zombie villager on a chicken with a diamond armor and an enchanted iron sword : 1/1 326 967 815 642 981 326 192 335

The author noted 3 errors in his video :

  • 1/20 “Baby Animals“: It states that there is a 10% chance in the description. Of course, 1 in 20 = 5% chance
  • /1024 “Switched Mooshroom Breed“: The correct percentage in the description should be 0.098%, not 0.00098%
  • 1/4000 “Apple and Sapling“: The correct percentage in the description should be 0.025% not 0.00025%

✅ Source for the probabilities : https://ijaminecraft.com/sources/probability-comparison-2020

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